Will the USA invade Iran? Liberal President Jimmy Carter’s (Carter Doctrine) of January 23, 1980 stated, "Let our position be absolutely clear: an attempt…to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by…military force."
40 per cent of the world’s oil and gas supplies pass through this vulnerable 59 mile wide stretch of water. Not only commercial commerce, but also Western navies must pass through this sea of turmoil. Iran controls most of this area, with boundaries (and military forces) stretching into the Arabian Sea (on one side) and the Gulf on the other. An invasion into Iran would most likely initiate a problem in this vital region.
The Pirates of Somalia
Modern history has shown that a few determined men; armed with Kalashnikov rifles and rocket propelled grenades, sitting in flimsy boats can virtually render useless the mighty warships of Japan and China. They put to shame the frigates of France and England while scampering around the destroyers of Italy and Germany. They make ineffective the nuclear cruisers of super power nations like the United States and Russia while accomplishing their simple task – make the shipping lanes hazardous and costly.
Iran has a large coastal area surrounding the Arabian Gulf. Stretching nearly 450 miles on the northern coast, the Iranians definitely maintain the capability to mine the straits and Gulf itself. But just as easily, the Persians could sink a few large ships in the narrow channel to accomplish the same result as their pirate neighbors – cut off vital commerce.
According to MIT political science Dr. Caitlin Talmadge, quoted in the Asia Times on September 23, 2008, "The experience of past mine-warfare campaigns suggests that it could take many weeks, even months, to restore the full flow of commerce, and more time still for the oil markets to be convinced that stability had returned."
The War Zone
“Attention unidentified aircraft squawking….This is US coalition warship….” A message heard by most commercial pilots regularly flying the airspace of the tumultuous Gulf. Those knowledgeable remember this call by the USS Vincennes prior to its downing of a passenger aircraft over the Persian Gulf in 1988.
The Gulf is adrift with large numbers of Western warships that must pass through the narrow and venerable Straits. Yet, far more important are the vital trade links between the Gulf nations of Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates and the Asian subcontinent. According to Silicon India, an Indian trade magazine reported in December 2007, “…71% of fruits, grains and vegetables [to the Middle East] originate in the Indian Subcontinent.”
The Neighbors
“Bison 19, south-bound on the boulevard, contract Muscat Control….” Coalition aircraft traverse the “Boulevard” on the Pakistani side of the Pakistan-Iran boarder daily on their way to Afghanistan’s hotspots. This airspace is within 20 miles of the Iranian boarder and the entrance to the Straits. Pakistani General Javed Ashraf warns, in the Pakistan Herald on September 22, 2009, “Pakistan’s sovereignty will [be in jeopardy] in a conflict between western…coalition forces and Iran….”
Conclusion
An invasion of Iran will conjure more problems for the West than the mining of the Straits of Hormuz. However, this waterway poses far more global problems than any individual war may present. Western nations must take this into account when considering conflict.
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